The tightest part of the Primary market is moving fast
These numbers cover the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is the period to keep in mind as you read.
The one fact that changes what you should do: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted just 2.4 months of supply in ZIP 85044. That is the tightest reading in the Primary market. Sellers there hold more leverage right now than anywhere else in these ZIP codes.
For context, the National Association of Realtors put the national supply level at 4.9 months. ZIP 85044 is less than half that.
Speed: more than 1 in 3 homes in 85044 go fast
The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 34.4% of homes in ZIP 85044 went under contract within two weeks of listing. That share rose 12.1 points from a year ago. Buyers in that ZIP code need clean terms and quick decisions.
The honest part: prices in 85044 dipped
Tight supply and fast sales did not push prices up in ZIP 85044. The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a median sale price of $467,500, down 6.4% from a year ago. Speed and price can move in different directions.
Nearly 17 in 100 homes in 85044 sold above list price. That share rose 10.2 points from a year ago. So while the middle price fell, competitive offers were more common.
The wider Primary market is also tightening
Across all 12 ZIP codes, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,903 homes sold in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 18.7% from the same months of 2025. Homes for sale fell 9.9% to 2,132.
More sales, fewer listings on the shelf. That combination is pulling supply down across the board.
Mortgage rates add pressure for buyers
Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.60%. Realtor.com noted that rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. Higher rates mean buyers are working harder to make the numbers fit, especially in the tighter ZIP codes.
Nationally, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. The Primary market is a mix: some ZIP codes beat that, some fell short.
Not every ZIP code tells the same story
ZIP 85260 saw prices rise 10.2% from a year ago, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 85018 fell 22%. One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it.
| 85044 | 85260 | 85018 | 85251 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $467,500 | $716,000 | $998,000 | $590,000 |
| Price change vs. year ago | -6.4% | +10.2% | -22% | +1.3% |
| Months of supply | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| Under contract in 2 weeks | 34.4% | 24% | 22.5% | 17% |
| Median days on market | 46 | 57 | 71 | 83 |
- ZIP 85044 has the least supply, the fastest sales pace, and 34.4% of homes going under contract within two weeks, all per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.
- But prices there fell 6.4% from a year ago.
- Tight supply does not always mean rising prices.
- Across the full Primary market, sales are up and listings are down.
- Rates at 7.28% (Freddie Mac) keep the pressure on buyers everywhere.
Your next step
(480) 229-6699Text me your address and I will send back how your home's supply level and two-week contract rate compare with what actually sold near you in the Primary market. Takes a day, costs nothing.
Text me- Real Estate Data Aggregator numbers for ZIPs 85251, 85018, 85045, 85048, 85044, 85248, 85249, 85254, 85260, 85016, 85014 and 85012, the three months ending July 31, 2026, compared with the same months of 2025. Real Estate Data Aggregator last updated them on Sep 3, 2026.
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates, read Oct 1, 2026
- National Association of Realtors: Existing-Home Sales, read Oct 1, 2026
- Federal Housing Finance Agency: U.S. House Prices Rise 2.1 Percent Year over Year; Up 0.3 percent Quarter over Quarter | FHFA, Aug 25, 2026
- Redfin: Price-Drop Rate Ticks Up to Record September Rate Amid Strong Buyer’s Market, Sep 30, 2026
- Redfin: Redfin Reports U.S. Home Prices Rose 0.25% From a Month Earlier in August, Sep 22, 2026
- Realtor.com: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Sept. 26, 2026), Oct 1, 2026